Secessionist impulses in Southern Thailand have existed since the
Sultanate of Patani was formally included in the Siamese Kingdom in the early
20th century, but violence returned to the region in January 2004. Today,
the violence shows no signs of abating and continues on a daily basis with
assassinations and bombings of government employees, military personnel and
civilians, and the destruction of regional infrastructure. Since 2004 over
5,000 people have died and 8,000 have been injured, a majority of whom were
civilians. Also, human rights abuses by insurgents are steadily increasing in
both quantity and intensity.
The aim of the insurgency
The main organisation operating today is thought to be
BRN-Coordinate (Barisan Revolusi
Nasional- Coordinate), which was formed after splitting from the BRN in the
1980s. This very loosely structured and hyper-secretive group does not take
credit for any of its attacks, and has also refrained from issuing any concrete
demands or stating clear and negotiable goals. The general aim, however,
appears to be merdeka – the Malay
word for sovereignty or independence – for the territory of the former
Sultanate of Patani, although some factions of the movement may settle for
autonomy within the Thai state. The insurgency cannot be seen as a cry for
development or a better standard of living, but it feeds off a sense of Malay
nationalism rooted in the Patani homeland – altogether this creates a sense of
being ruled by foreigners and undermining the Patani national right to
self-determination.
Military response so far inadequate
The policy for bringing peace to the South so far has been to try
and suppress the insurgency militarily, combined with an increase in
development of the area. This strategy has been and is doomed to be
unsuccessful, simply because it does not pay enough tribute to the real
situation. Investing in development is always good, but will not bring peace as
it assumes that the violence springs from economic dissatisfaction, not
recognising the genuine desire for cultural recognition and a degree of
autonomy.
Further, while in past decades, when insurgents were camped in the
jungle and launched coordinated attacks from there, a military approach may
have been useful, today’s cellular structure is embedded in everyday village
life with volunteers not fighting full-time but well integrated into their
surroundings. Intervention, thus, always effects the lives of non-participating
civilians, too; rather than undermining the insurgency, this military response
can even feed the grievances of the population and raise support for the
insurgency.
It is necessary for a regional dialogue to emerge on possibilities
of autonomy or special governance structures for the South, and to this end the
Thai government must try and facilitate the openness of dialogue. Actors in the
South must be able to engage in a dialogue without fearing accusations of being
traitors – only through creative, open and honest discourse will it be possible
for a solution to emerge which a majority is happy with.
BRN-C structure undermines potential for negotiation
All organisations in the insurgency are so cellular that not only is
military success unlikely, the groups are also so disparate that they render
dialogue impossible. Members mostly do not even know the name of their group,
and often the real name of superiors; further, membership is secret and the
insurgents do not claim responsibility for attacks.
The degree of cohesion is fiercely debated, some seeing groups as flexible
but with an order of command and commander intent being present while others
doubt any coordination between groups at all. The renowned scholar and former
National Reconciliation Commission secretary, Gothom Arya, deems the current
insurgency to be a hybrid of bottom-up, disparate cells and a top-down
hierarchy, whereby the leadership gives flexible instructions which are adapted
to local structures by individual
cells; the initiative for certain attacks is at the cell level though training,
ideological formation and preparation for each attack is at the organisation
level. Thus, there is a certain amount of coordination between groups, though
they also function independently and are deeply embedded in local village
structures.
Discussions regarding autonomy and other political solutions to the
Patani violence will only work if they receive the backing of the insurgency.
Otherwise, much time and money will be spent on creating new structures that
are then still the target of intense violence. At the moment, however, the insurgents
are in no position to bargain as they have no coherent political arm to their
operations due to their cellular and hyper-secret organisation. Insurgents must
be given the space to organise themselves politically without having to
constantly fear being targeted by security personnel; only then will they be
able to negotiate – primarily, this can then be a negotiation of a ceasefire so
that all will lay down arms; a ceasefire would then be a good basis on which to
then start negotiating political settlements.
Peace deals can only come from organised insurgents
It is not uncommon across Southeast Asia to see phases of peace and
violence: in both Indonesia and the Philippines, peace dialogue has continually
been faced by relapses into violence, but peace agreements have only ever been
possible out of a position of strength for the insurgents who can then rally
their constituents into supporting the deal. At the moment, unfortunately, the
Thai government appears to be doing the exact opposite through its military
strategy: it is trying to divide and conquer the insurgents rather than
encouraging them to cooperate and engage politically. Further, not only within
the groups themselves must this organisational cohesion progress, but also
dialogue between the groups should be facilitated in order to preclude later
factional violence.
It is absolutely pivotal that insurgency groups be encouraged to
organise politically and come to the negotiation table as soon as possible. By
involving them in dialogue on the region’s future the violence and bloodshed
that has been plaguing Southern Thailand for nearly eight years now can be
brought to an end for their own benefit.
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